TLDR:
A black swan event is a rare, unpredictable, high-impact occurrence that defies conventional expectations and, in retrospect, seems obvious, coined by Nassim Taleb. Examples include the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Black Swan Preparedness in Business
While black swan events are by definition unpredictable, companies can build organizational resilience to improve survival odds when they occur. Key resilience practices include: maintaining adequate cash reserves (12+ months of runway), diversifying customer and supplier concentrations, building flexible cost structures that can be rapidly scaled down, maintaining strong banking relationships before crises occur, and stress-testing business models against extreme scenarios regularly. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that companies with strong balance sheets, flexible operations, and digital capabilities dramatically outperformed those without.