\u0130skonto Edilmi\u015f Nakit Ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 (Discounted Cash Flow, DCF), bir \u015firketin veya yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferini hesaplayan de\u011ferleme y\u00f6ntemidir. Fundamental valuation’\u0131n temel ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
DCF, paran\u0131n zaman de\u011ferini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fere indirir. Form\u00fcl: DCF = \u03a3 [CF_t \/ (1+r)^t] + Terminal Value. Burada CF gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, r iskonto oran\u0131, t y\u0131l say\u0131s\u0131. DCF, intrinsic value (ger\u00e7ek de\u011fer) hesaplamada alt\u0131n standartt\u0131r ve Wall Street’in en g\u00fcvendi\u011fi y\u00f6ntemlerden biridir.<\/p>\n
DCF modelinin ana bile\u015fenleri: Free Cash Flow projections (genellikle 5-10 y\u0131l, segment by segment), Discount Rate (WACC kullan\u0131l\u0131r \u2014 Weighted Average Cost of Capital), Terminal Value (perpetuity ile veya exit multiple ile), Growth Rates (revenue, margin, capex projections), ve Sensitivity Analysis (key assumptions de\u011fi\u015fince valuation nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fir). Excel modelleri tipik olarak 5,000-50,000 sat\u0131r olabilir.<\/p>\n
DCF \u00e7e\u015fitli ama\u00e7lar i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r: Equity research analist’lerin temel arac\u0131, M&A valuation (target \u015firketin ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferini bulma), IPO pricing, Project valuation (NPV analizi), Goodwill impairment testing (muhasebe i\u00e7in), Internal corporate decisions (acquisition vs build-out), ve Private equity LBO modeling. Public ve private \u015firketler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir, ancak private \u015firketler i\u00e7in Liquidity Discount uygulan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
DCF g\u00fcvenilir olabilir ama \u00f6nemli s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131 vard\u0131r: “Garbage in, garbage out” \u2014 k\u00f6t\u00fc tahminler k\u00f6t\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar, Terminal value tipik olarak total value’nun %50-80’ini olu\u015fturur (sensitivity y\u00fcksek), Discount rate se\u00e7imi b\u00fcy\u00fck etki yarat\u0131r, High-growth startup’lar i\u00e7in unreliable (cash flows belirsiz), Macro de\u011fi\u015fiklikler (faiz oranlar\u0131) y\u00fczdesel de\u011fi\u015fir. Bu nedenle DCF her zaman comparable analizi ile birlikte triangulate edilmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
TLDR: \u0130skonto Edilmi\u015f Nakit Ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 (Discounted Cash Flow, DCF), bir \u015firketin veya yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferini hesaplayan de\u011ferleme y\u00f6ntemidir. Fundamental valuation’\u0131n temel ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. DCF Nedir? DCF, paran\u0131n zaman de\u011ferini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fere indirir. Form\u00fcl: DCF = \u03a3 [CF_t \/ (1+r)^t] + Terminal Value. Burada CF gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"class_list":["post-7950","term","type-term","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/term\/7950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/term"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/term"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7950"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/term\/7950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9678,"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/term\/7950\/revisions\/9678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/virconlegal.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}